The Effect Of The Exchange Rate On Demand For Money In Sudan: The Question Of Asymmetry

Authors

  • Dr Omer Ahmed Sayed

Keywords:

Exchange rate, Money Demand, NARDL, ARDL, Asymmetry, Symmetry

Abstract

In this study, we intended to examine the asymmetric effect of exchange rates on demand for money in Sudan. Applying the Non-linear ARDL model to annual data for the period 1960 to 2019, using inflation, real GDP, and profit margin of Murabaha as control variables. Few studies found that test the non-linearity effect of the exchange rate on money demand in Sudan. This paper tried to fill this gap by testing the impact of the Sudanese Pound exchange rate non-linearity on the money demand in Sudan. The findings show that asymmetric effect of the exchange rate on money demand both the short run as well as long run were found. The policy implication of our results is that assuming a symmetry relationship between the exchange rate and demand for money may affect the economic planning negatively. Thus, non-linear ARDL assumes to be more suitable than the linear ARDL for examining such a relationship.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abdel-Rahman, A. M. (1997). Adjustments and Error Corrections in Money Demand during High Inflation: A Case Study of Sudan. Rivista Internazionale di scienze economiche e commerciali, 44, 431-450.

Ahmed, A. A. (2020). Factors Affecting Money Demand in Sudan: Statistical and Analytical Study (1990-2019). IJRDO - Journal of Social Science and Humanities Research (ISSN: 2456-2971), 5(7), 18-32. Retrieved from http://ijrdo.org/index.php/sshr/article/view/3735.

Alsamara, M., & Mrabet, Z. (2019). Asymmetric impacts of foreign exchange rate on demand for money in Turkey: new evidence from non-linear ARDL. International Economics and Economic Policy, 16(2), 335-356.

Arango, S., & Nadiri, M.I. (1981). Demand for Money in Open Economies, Journal of Monetary Economics 7, 69–83.

Aworinde, O. B., & Akintoye, I. R. (2019). Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on money demand in Nigeria? African Finance Journal, 21(1), 50-66.

Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., & Baek, J. (2017). Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Korea? Review of Economic Analysis, 9(2), 155-168.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Bahmani, S. (2015). Non-linear ARDL approach and the demand for money in Iran. Economics Bulletin, 35(1), 381-391.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Gelan, A. (2019). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on demand for money in Africa. Applied Economics, 51(31), 3365-3375.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Pourheydarian, M. (1990). Exchange rate sensitivity of the demand for money and effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies, Applied Economics, 22, 917– 925.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Bahmani, S., Kutan, A. M., & Xi, D. (2019). On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on demand for money: evidence from emerging economies. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 18(1), 1-22.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Miteza, I., & Tanku, A. (2020). Exchange rate changes and money demand in Albania: a non-linear ARDL analysis. Economic Change and Restructuring, 1-15.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Xi, D., & Bahmani, S. (2016). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on demand for money in China. Applied Economics Letters, 23(15), 1104- 1109.

Central Bank of Sudan (CBS) (https://cbos.gov.sd/en)

Domowitz, I., & Elbadawi, I. (1987). An error-correction approach to money demand: the case of Sudan. Journal of Development Economics, 26(2), 257-275.

EIGhoul, Abdullahi E1 Sherief, 1977, demand for money in Sudan, Discussion paper no. 58 (Economic and Social Research Council, University of Khartoum, Khartoum).

Elshwin, E. A. E. M. (2017). INFLATIONARY EXPECTATION, EXCHANGE RATE AND DEMAND FOR MONEY IN SUDAN FROM 1970-2003. Khartoum University Journal of Management Studies, 10(1).

Ho, S. H., and Saadaoui, J. (2019). Symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand: Empirical evidence from Vietnam.

Leong, C. M., Puah, C. H., Lau, E., & Shazali, A. M. (2019). Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on demand for divisia money in Malaysia. Journal of International Studies, 12(4).

Mundell, A. (1963). Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange rates." Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science 29: 75–485.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289– 326.

Sahadudheen, I. (2011). Demand for money and exchange rate: Evidence for wealth effect in India. Economic Review, 8(1), 15.

Shin, Y., B. C. Yu, and M. Greenwood-Nimmo. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Non-linear ARDL Framework. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, edited by R. Sickels and W. Horrace, 281–314. New York: Springer.

Suliman, S. Z., & Dafaalla, H. A. (2011). An econometric analysis of money demand function in Sudan, 1960 to 2010. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 3(16), 793-800.

Downloads

Published

2021-02-28

How to Cite

Sayed, D. O. A. . (2021). The Effect Of The Exchange Rate On Demand For Money In Sudan: The Question Of Asymmetry. The Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business and Government, 27(1), 1318–1332. Retrieved from https://cibgp.com/au/index.php/1323-6903/article/view/635