Impacts of the Free Trade Agreement on Pakistan Export to China and Economic Growth

Authors

  • Khalid Rahamdil
  • LIU Chunsheng
  • Faryal Salman
  • Fayaz Hussain Tunio
  • Naveed Khan
  • Agha Amad Nabi

Keywords:

Free Trade Agreement, Bilateral Trade, Trade Potential, Comparative Advantage

Abstract

The Free Trade Agreements between Pakistan and China increased the trade prospects between Pakistan China, resulting in an increased trade deficit in Pakistan with China. The study is based onhow the FTAs impact exports in Pakistan. This paper's results suggest a positive contribution of FTAs to Pakistan's exports in China's economy and the imports from China. However, the increase in imports is much higher than the increase in exports after Pakistan entered into subsequent FTAs with China. As a result, there is an increase in the Pakistan trade deficit, and the growth prospects of Pakistan suffered. The constant marketsuggests that,by focusing on products that enhance Pakistan's comparative advantage,improving infrastructure, efficient tariff line utilization, and deep understanding of China's market, all are necessary for Pakistan to benefit from FTAs; otherwise, their provision becomes counterproductive. It is concluded that Pakistan needs to reduce the trade deficit with China as it negatively impacts its macroeconomic situation. Exports enhanced by investing in innovative technologies andreduced importsthrough production inland.

References

Abdelmalki, L., Sandretto, R., Jallab, M. S., & Center, A. T. P. (2007).THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND MOROCCO.

Baier, S. L., &Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?. Journal of international Economics, 71(1), 72-95.

Bandara, J. S., & Yu, W. (2003). How desirable is the South Asian Free Trade Area? A quantitative economic assessment. World Economy, 26(9), 1293-1323.

Batra, A. (2007). South Asia's Free Trade Agreement: Strategies and Options. Economic and Political Weekly, 3878-3885.

Caporale, G. M., Rault, C., Sova, R., &Sova, A. (2008).On the trade balance effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries.

Chishti, D. A., Zulfiqar, D. M., & Naqvi, D. Z. (2008).The impact of trade policies on Pakistan's preferential access to the European Union. Reference no: TRADE08 C, 3.

Durongkaveroj, W. (2015). The Next Chapter of ASEAN Economic Community through Integrating with the existing FTA partners (RCEP), Turkey, and Pakistan. University Library of Munich, Germany.

Estrada, G., Park, D., Park, I., & Park, S. (2012). China's free trade agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea: A comparative analysis. China & World Economy, 20(4), 108-126.

Fayaz H. Tunio, Nabi, A. A., Yi, D., &Shaikh, S. A. (2020).foreseeing the role of raw material prices in renewable energy diffusion. 12. International Journal of ManagementVolume 11, Issue 11, November 2020, pp. 1371-1382.

Fligenspan, F. B., Lélis, M. T. C., Cunha, A. M., &Clezar, R. V. (2015). The Brazilian exports of labor-intensive goods in the 2000s: An analysis using the Constant Market Share Method. EconomiA, 16(1), 128-144.

Gallagher, K. (2004). Free trade and the environment: Mexico, NAFTA, and beyond.

Stanford University Press.

Geldi, H. K. (2012). Trade effects of regional integration: A panel cointegration analysis. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1566-1570.

Ghosh, S., &Yamarik, S. (2004). Are regional trading arrangements trade creating?: An application of extreme bounds analysis. Journal of International Economics, 63(2), 369-395.

Glick, R., & Rose, A. K. (2002). Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence. European economic review, 46(6), 1125-1151.

Herath, H. M. S. P. (2014). Impacts of ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) on Agrifood Trade Creation and Trade Diversion. Impacts of ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) on Agrifood Trade Creation and Trade Diversion (May 30, 2014).

HerreríasTalamantes, M. J., & Orts, V. (2010). Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China's Growth?.

Huh, H. S., & Park, C. Y. (2018). Asia-Pacific regional integration index: Construction, interpretation, and comparison. Journal of Asian Economics, 54, 22-38.

Irshad, M. S., Xin, Q., Xuan, P., & Arshad, H. (2016).Deltoid analysis of Pakistan-ASEAN- China free trade agreements and opportunities for Pakistan. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 6(5), 228-237.

Irwin, D. A. (2020). Free trade under fire.Princeton University Press.

Jean, S., Mulder, N., & Ramos, M. P. (2014).A general equilibrium, ex-post evaluation of the EU–Chile Free Trade Agreement. Economic Modelling, 41, 33-45.

Kandogan, Y. (2005). Trade creation and diversion effects of Europe's Regional Liberalization Agreements.

Kazutomo, A. B. E. (2007). Assessing the Economic Impacts of Free Trade Agreements: A Computable Equilibrium Model Approach (No. 07053).

Khan, M. A., Mehmood, Q., Zakaria, M., &Husnain, M. I. U. (2018).A Household Level Analysis of the Pakistan–Malaysia Free Trade Agreement. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 53(7), 1062-1085.

Khurana, R., &Nauriyal, D. K. (2017). ASEAN-India free trade agreement: Evaluating trade creation and trade diversion effects. Journal of East-West Business, 23(3), 283-307.

Kumar, R. (2020). South Asia: Multilateral trade agreements and untapped regional trade integration. International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Lateef, M., Tong, G. J., &Riaz, M. U. (2018).Exploring the gravity of agricultural trade in China–Pakistan Free Trade Agreement. The Chinese Economy, 51(6), 522-533.

Magee, C. (2003). Endogenous preferential trade agreements: An empirical analysis. Contributions to economic analysis and policy, 2(1), 1-17.

Magee, C. S. (2008). New measures of trade creation and trade diversion. Journal of International Economics, 75(2), 349-362.

Mendes, C. A., &Gagliano, L. (2020). The Belt and Road Initiative: A New Platform in EU- China Cooperation?.In The Belt and Road Initiative (pp. 239-253). Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore.

Mitra, D. (2002). Endogenous political organization and the value of trade agreements. Journal of International Economics, 57(2), 473-485.

Nufile, A. A. M., Ahmed, A. N., & Ismail, M. B. M. (2013). India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISFTA): A Comparison with SAARC and SAFTA.

Pal, B. D., &Pohit, S. (2020). Anatomy of Non-tariff Barriers in India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement: An Empirical Investigation. South Asia Economic Journal, 21(1), 122- 141.

Saini, G. K. (2012). Non-tariff measures and Indian Textiles and Clothing exports.

Shah, S. H., Kamal, M. A., & Yu, D. L. (2020). Did China‐Pakistan free trade agreement promote trade and development in Pakistan?. International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Shaikh, F. M., Syed, A. A. S. G., Shah, H., & Shah, A. A. (2012).Observing Impact of SAFTA on Pakistan's Economy by Using CGE Model. Pakistan Journal of Commerce & Social Sciences, 6(1).

Shepherd, B. (2019). Mega-regional trade agreements and Asia: An application of structural gravity to goods, services, and value chains. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 51, 32-42.

Shinyekwa, I., &Othieno, L. (2013).Comparing the performance of Uganda's intra-East African Community trade and other trading blocs: A gravity model analysis.

Soloaga, I., &Wintersb, L. A. (2001). Regionalism in the nineties: What effect on trade?. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(1), 1-29.

Susanto, D., Rosson III, C. P., & Adcock, F. J. (2007). Trade creation and trade diversion in the North American Free Trade Agreement: the case of the agricultural sector. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 39(1379-2016-112894), 121- 134.

Taneja, N., Prakash, S., &Kalita, P. (2013). India's role in facilitating trade under SAFTA (No. 263).Working Paper.

Tunio, F. H., Ding, Yi., Agha, A. N., Agha, K., &Panhwar, H. u. R. Z. (2021). Financial Distress Prediction Using Adaboost and Bagging in Pakistan Stock Exchange.The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(1), 665–673.

Tunio, F. H., & Nabi, A. A. (2021).Political decentralization, fiscal centralization, and its consequences in case of Pakistan.Cogent Social Sciences, 7(1), 1-22.

Vanzetti, D., & Pham, H. T. L. (2006).Vietnam’s trade policy dilemmas.

Vicard, V. (2011).Determinants of successful regional trade agreements. Economics Letters, 111(3), 188-190.

Wacziarg, R., & Welch, K. H. (2008). Trade liberalization and growth: New evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 22(2), 187-231.

Zada, N., & Khan, K. (2017).General Equilibrium Analysis of Pakistan's Free Trade Agreements' A Global CGE Approach'.

Zhou, K., & Wong, M. C. (2008).The determinants of net interest margins of commercial banks in mainland China. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(5), 41-53.

Downloads

Published

2021-10-30

How to Cite

Rahamdil, K. ., Chunsheng, L. ., Salman, F. ., Tunio, F. H., Khan, N. ., & Nabi, A. A. . (2021). Impacts of the Free Trade Agreement on Pakistan Export to China and Economic Growth. The Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business and Government, 27(5), 644–662. Retrieved from https://cibgp.com/au/index.php/1323-6903/article/view/2012