US ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS: DO THEY CONVEY INFORMATION TO THE AUSTRALIAN SHARE MARKET?

Authors

  • Ian Hyland Curtin University of Technology
  • Sean Chinnery Curtin University of Technology
  • John Evans Curtin University of Technology

Abstract

This study covers the period from January 2000 to June 2005 and examines the 'announcement effect' of economic news releases in the United States (US) on returns in the Australian share market. Using previously developed models and professional surveys as proxies for expected components of the announcements, the study analyses how the Australian market reacts to both expected and unexpected components. Three types of US economic announcements are analysed in this study, namely discount rate changes, inflation and real economic activity. Results show that significant relationships occur for each of the three types of economic announcements. These findings provide empirical proof that Australian investors regard US economic news as containing information relevant in the pricing of Australian equities. This has consequences for investors and fund managers throughout Australia who need to consider the impact of US and global economic conditions when developing investment strategies.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Campbell, F. and Lewis, E. (1998) What Moves Yields in Australia? Reserve Bank of Australia (Research Discussion Paper No. 9808).

Choi, W.G. (1999) Estimating the discount rate policy reaction function of the monetary authority. Journal of Applied Economics, 14 (July-August) pp 379-401.

Conover, C.M., Jensen, G.R. and Johnson, R.R. (1999) Monetary environments and international stock returns. Journal of Banking and Finance, 23 (9) pp 1357-1381.

Cozier, B.V. and Rahman, A.H. (1988) Stock returns, inflation, and real activity in Canada. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 21 (November) pp 759-774.

Fama, E.F. (1970) Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25 (December) pp 383-417.

Fama, E.F. (1991) Efficient capital markets: ІІ. The Journal of Finance,46 (December) pp 1575-1617. Fama, E.F. (1981) Stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money. The American Economic Review,71 (September) pp 545-565.

Feldstein, M. (1980) Inflation and the stock market. The American Economic Review,70 (December) pp 839-847.

Fisher, I. (1930) The Theory of Interest. Macmillan, New York, NY.

Froyen, R. (1975) The determination of federal reserve discount rate policy. Southern Economic Journal, 42 pp 193-200.

Hess, P.J. and Lee, B. (1999) Stock returns and inflation with supply and demand disturbances. The Review of Financial Studies,12 (Winter) pp 1203-1218.

Jaffe, J.F. and Mandelker, G. (1976) The 'Fisher Effect' for risky assets: An empirical investigation. The Journal of Finance, 31 (May) pp 447-458.

Kahn, G.A. (2001) The economic outlook and monetary policy before and after September 11, 2001. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, KS.

Kortian, T. and O'Regan, J. (1996) Australian financial market volatility: An exploration of cross-country and cross-market linkages. Reserve Bank of Australia (Research Discussion Paper No. 9609).

Kim, S. and In, F. (2005) The relationship between stock returns and inflation: New evidence from Wavelet Analysis. Journal of Empirical Finance,12 pp 435-444.

Lombra, R.E. and Torto, R.G. (1977) Discount rate changes and announcement effects. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 91 (February) pp 171-176.

Nelson, C.R. (1976) Inflation and rates of return on common stock. Journal of Finance, 31 (May) pp 471-483.

Downloads

Published

2006-12-30

How to Cite

Hyland, I. . ., Chinnery, S. . ., & Evans, J. . (2006). US ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS: DO THEY CONVEY INFORMATION TO THE AUSTRALIAN SHARE MARKET?. The Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business and Government, 12(2), 81–101. Retrieved from https://cibgp.com/au/index.php/1323-6903/article/view/17