The journal of contemporary issues in business and government

CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET DYNAMICS AROUND BITCOIN FUTURES EXPIRATION EVENTS

Radovan Vojtko — 2024-07-12

In the rapidly evolving landscape of cryptocurrency markets, understanding the underlying dynamics that drive price movements and investor sentiment can be a matter of survival. However, there are myriad facets of trading reality, and the only thing that we can do is to slowly understand them one after another, one step at a time. This article picks one corner of the cryptocurrency market and sheds a little light on it. We have already written a few times about the importance of the introduction of Bitcoin futures and their impact on the Bitcoin price. Therefore, in this article, we will specifically examine Bitcoin’s behavior around the critical events when Bitcoin futures expire.

THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CRUDE OIL PRICE VOLATILITY ON THE LABOR MARKET: A CASE STUDY OF GABON FOR THE PERIOD (1990-2022)

Esam Hadi Al- Salhi — 2024-07-20

This research explores the dynamic relationship between crude oil price fluctuations and their impact on the labor market, particularly unemployment rates in Gabon during the period 1990-2022. As a country heavily reliant on oil exports, Gabon faces economic vulnerabilities due to uncertainties inherent in global oil markets. The study employs a comprehensive approach encompassing theoretical frameworks, methodologies, and empirical analyses to understand the intricate links between crude oil prices, foreign direct investment, economic growth, and unemployment. The study utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to explore short- and long-run dynamics of the variables under consideration.

The empirical results shed light on a long-term positive relationship between crude oil prices and unemployment attributed to the Dutch Disease phenomenon. It is acknowledged that the impact of foreign direct investment on unemployment is multifaceted, influenced by sectoral focus, technological adoption, and economic diversification. Economic growth initially correlates with a decrease in unemployment rates in the short run but exhibits asymmetric effects over time.

Diagnostic tests confirm the model's reliability with insignificant serial correlation and residue homoscedasticity. Stability tests validate the consistency of data relationships, confirming the enduring relationships between variables

QUANTITATIVE WEALTH AND INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT (QWIM) ADVANCED PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION

Jifan He — 2024-08-02

Within the realm of Portfolio Diversification, the classic Mean-Variance (MV) Analysis framework faces scrutiny for its stringent assumptions and the high propensity for creating portfolios that are heavily concentrated in a limited selection of assets. Our study explores various Advanced Portfolio Diversification (APD) techniques Hierarchical Clustering (HC) with Hierarchical Principal Component Analysis (HPCA) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to address the inherent estimation challenges associated with MV. These innovative methods refine the diversification process by utilizing the hierarchical and centroid clustering network approaches, thereby mitigating most of the problems incurred by the MV framework and problematic portfolios. When tested against various diversification models and anchoring strategies, these diversified portfolio management methodologies demonstrate superior performance over the traditional Mean-Variance (MV) strategy in the long-term horizon, across multiple risk-adjusted evaluation metrics. The reasons for this result are twofold: (1) the more diverse weight allocation of HC models, and (2) the flexibility of HC models in selecting different risk measures.

RESEARCH ON THE LINKAGE OF DIGITAL MONEY MARKET: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON GRANGER CAUSALITY TEST AND VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION

Fateh Saci — 2024-07-26

Based on the close price data of the main nine currency pairs in the digital money market in the period between 2018 and 2020, the linkage relationship between the nine currency pairs' price changes has been empirically studied. The impact of BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT on the volatility of other currencies is analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient, Granger causality test and variance decomposition. The results show that the price change of BTCUSDT is the reason for the price change of all other currencies. The fluctuation change of BTCUSDT can be explained by its own fluctuation. The fluctuation of other currencies has little contribution on the fluctuation of BTCUSDT. Among the contributions made on the overall market volatility, BTC's impact on market volatility is higher than ETH's impact on market volatility. XRP volatility can be explained by its own volatility, and its currency trend is quite different from that of other currencies.

"ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF REMITTANCES FROM OVERSEAS WORKERS ON POVERTY IN LEBANON (2001-2023)"

Asmaa Taha Mukhlaf — 2024-08-14

Remittances from migrants constitute an important source of income in Lebanon, especially during economic crises. Between 2001 and 2023, remittances increased and accounted for about 14% of GDP in 2021. Studies indicate that remittances contribute to reducing poverty and improving living conditions by financing education and healthcare. For instance, a 2006 study showed that 24.6% of Lebanese households were deprived of basic necessities, but households receiving remittances managed to improve their financial and social status. The study used semi-annual data from Lebanon to analyze the relationship between remittances and poverty using statistical models such as unit root tests and co-integration analysis. The results showed that remittances significantly reduce poverty and improve economic conditions, aligning with previous literature that confirms the role of remittances in enhancing household income and access to education and healthcare. The study recommends enhancing financial inclusion and reducing remittance costs, developing policies to invest remittances in productive projects, and strengthening social safety nets to support vulnerable groups. The study summarizes the impact of remittances on poverty alleviation in Lebanon and the importance of their role in supporting the economy and improving living conditions .